Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-21T00:29:48

High energy flux (greater than 2MeV) has steadily increased from background levels to reach high levels. Persistence suggests that the electron flux will remain at mainly high levels with diurnal declines to normal levels.  This is however dependent on the magnitude of any geomagnetic activity, which could reduce the flux for sustained periods, especially on days 1 and 2.

Corresponding fluence values are currently just below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold but are forecast to increase above the Active threshold and remain there in the absence of increase geomagnetic activity. Again based on the last rotation, there is an increasing risk of the Very Active threshold being reached by day 4.