MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-22T00:31:17
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) at GEO is expected to be at background to moderate levels throughout the period, with peaks through the diurnal cycle.
Corresponding 24-hour fluence values are also forecast to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), although a significant increase in solar wind speeds could lead to a response towards the Active threshold by day 3. The uncertainty is reflected in a chance of the Active threshold being reached from day 3 onwards.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-22T00:31:17 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |