Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-21T00:10:58

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to be at background levels with today's rise in solar wind speeds insufficient to give a significant response in the electron flux in the outer Van Allen belt. The corresponding 24-hour fluence will remain well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). However, if the next coronal hole brings solar winds in excess of 600 km/s then there may be a response towards the Active threshold on Day 4, which is reflected in the rise in probabilities on Day 4. The 27-day recurrence indicates a positive response towards the end of the 4-day period.