Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-28T00:14:00

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to continue to rise above the Active threshold with the diurnal maximum. Correspondingly, the 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8 pfu) threshold through much of the forecast period, but with lower confidence towards the end of the period. The 27-day recurrence suggests levels will remain above the Active threshold for the next 4 or 5 days, with a reducing confidence towards the end of the forecast period. There is no geomagnetic activity expected, and so little to cause the elevated electron flux to drop out or be disrupted. The recent high speed stream has also declined, which suggests there is little to drive the current flux / fluence levels higher.