MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-29T00:09:16
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary between moderate and high levels as part of the diurnal cycle, with no significant changes in flux levels expected in the coming days.
Corresponding 24-hour electron fluence values are expected to remain above, but very close to, the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through much of the forecast period. This forecast is based mainly on persistence data from the previous rotation, where fluence started at a similar level and remained just above the threshold for much of the following 4 days. The gradually decreasing probabilities are reflective of the decline in values shown towards the end of the equivalent 4-day period on the previous rotation.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-29T00:09:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |