Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-05T00:04:40

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to remain at low levels through the period, with fluence levels therefore also remaining well below Active levels (1e8 integrated pfu). Coronal holes 13 and 14 appear too weak to make a significant difference to the flux / fluence levels with solar winds currently running below the previous rotation. When coronal hole 13 went through Stereo A the solar wind speeds only went to 450 km/s, and although coronal hole 14 was seemingly not detected at Stereo A there is considered to be insufficient solar winds to lead to elevated fluence levels in the forecast period. This is supported by both the REFM forecast model, and the 27-day recurrence.