MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-04T00:10:16
New coronal hole activity is anticipated over the next 4 days, mostly weak in nature, but likely encouraging the electron flux to increase slowly. As the flux is starting from a very low level, it will take quite a lot of enhancement and charging of the Van Allen belts to get the flux back up to high (>1000pfu) and then to affect the fluence. The fluence may start creeping towards the active threshold of 1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1 by day 4 (7th August).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-08-04T00:10:16 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 1% |