Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-03T00:16:47

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at background levels for much of the period, with the associated fluence remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.

By day three (Sunday 05 August), the forecast high speed stream from coronal hole 13 ought to be in course. STEREO A measurements for the relevant time period suggest solar wind speeds of 450km/s, although it should be noted that this satellite is sampling solar conditions at a lower solar latitude than at Earth (12 degrees difference). Given this modest solar wind speed, exceedence of the Active fluence threshold is not considered particularly likely into day four, however this does represent the peak risk in the period.

The latest REFM persists with the current fluence trend between 1e6 and 1e7 integrated pfu through the scope of its three-day forecast. This hints at the most likely state of affairs, which ought to be a steady state through days one and two, perhaps followed by a dip on day three and a rise on day four, albeit most likely remaining below Active throughout.