Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-10T00:11:20

The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is currently at low background levels, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). With the solar wind now slow and ambient, and the current radiation flux so low (7e5 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1 ), there is little chance that fluence values will break the active threshold on day 1 (10th). Based on persistence from the last rotation, the next modest enhancement in the solar wind provided by CH15 is likely to further reduce the flux through initial compression of the magnetosphere, due on day 2, with a struggle to recover back to higher values of flux on day 3. Therefore the risk of crossing the active threshold remains very low for days 2 to 4 (11th to 13th).