MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-27T00:17:43
The flux of high energy electrons is now at moderate to high levels, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).
The high energy electron flux is expected to continue to increase, becoming mainly high (>1000pfu) with no significant geomagnetic activity expected to redistribute electrons. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8) threshold throughout the forecast period and possibly rise further, with a small but increasing chance of approaching the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu) towards the end of the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-27T00:17:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 10% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 20% |
| Day 4 | 90% | 30% |