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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-27T00:17:43

The flux of high energy electrons is now at moderate to high levels, with the corresponding 24-hour fluence above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu).

The high energy electron flux is expected to continue to increase, becoming mainly high (>1000pfu) with no significant geomagnetic activity expected to redistribute electrons.  The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain above the Active (1e8) threshold throughout the forecast period and possibly rise further, with a small but increasing chance of approaching the Very Active threshold (1e9 integrated pfu) towards the end of the forecast period.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-07-27T00:17:43
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 90% 10%
Day 3 90% 20%
Day 4 90% 30%