Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-27T00:15:18

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) increased to high levels through the second half of 26th June due to establishment of the high speed stream from negative polarity coronal hole 04 in the sun's southwest quadrant and a slight decrease in levels of geomagnetic activity. Generally moderate to high flux levels are expected through the period, but with some temporary reductions to normal background associated with significantly increased geomagnetic activity, this most likely on day 1 (27th), with a decreasing chance thereafter.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is now on an upward trend, likely to be above the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) on day 2 (28th), and expected to remain at these moderate levels through days 3 and 4 (29th and 30th).