MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-28T00:01:57
The high energy electron flux is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period. The corresponding 24-hour fluence is also expected to be broadly flat and not expected to exceed the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). This is supported by the REFM model which is showing below Active fluence levels on the previous rotation, and with recent weak solar wind speeds the forecast is also low. Although solar wind speeds may pick a little on 28th, this is unlikely to be sufficient to cause a significant rise in fluence levels.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-05-28T00:01:57 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |