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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-29T00:12:51

The radiation belts are currently discharged, showing mainly background to moderate flux levels at GEO in the high energy electron band (>2MeV). With only ambient winds expected over the next 3 days, together with geomagnetic activity on day 4, it is unlikely that flux levels will build and maintain above >1000pfu during the period to result in active threshold fluence (>1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1). The fluence is more likely to increase significantly during day 5 (2nd June) onwards.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-05-29T00:12:51
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%