MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-22T00:26:26
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at normal background to moderate levels through much of the period, with diurnal peaks approaching the high threshold (1000 pfu). The corresponding 24 hour electron fluence is therefore expected to remain relatively steady and below the Active (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1) threshold. However there is a slight indication for an increasing trend towards the end of the period, as shown in REFM. This is due to the potential for slightly elevated solar wind conditions when earth transits into the fast wind from coronal hole 95, later today or day 2.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-05-22T00:26:26 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |