Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-15T00:20:01

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been at moderate to high levels over the last 24 hours as solar wind speeds have remained elevated. Moderate to high electron flux is expected to continue on days 1 and 2, with a slowly decreasing trend as solar wind speeds continue to decline. A temporary reduction to background levels is possible late day 2 or on days 3 and 4 due to increased geomagnetic activity associated with coronal hole 94

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to respond with an overall slow declining trend over the next few days. However the fluence is likely to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) until day 3, when it is likely to fall below. 

The REFM forecast is currently showing values that are too low compared to observations, with actual values likely to be higher during days 1 and 2. A steadier, more gradual downward trend is most likely, with a drop below the Active threshold most likely on day 3.