Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-16T00:24:52

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been over 1000pfu since 14/0625UTC following the wake of CH93's high speed stream. At the moment the overall flux levels seem fairly stable, if not rising slightly. The 1e9 Very Active threshold seems unlikely to be met during day 1 should flux levels stay relatively constant, and should be much reduced during day 2 (17th) with the onset of some magnetosphere compression and geomagnetic activity. In the wake of CH94 later in the week, flux levels may start to rise again. The Met Office REFM forecast is currently showing values that are too low compared to observations.