Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-04-16T00:05:58

The current ambient solar wind should mean that the current Active 24-hour integrated fluence ebbs away through the four-day period, with no impetus to increase counts. The speed at which this occurs is open to some doubt, with fluence observations consistently showing a more gradual falling trend than REFM would like. The current downward gradient would see fluence below Active around the turn of day three into day four (Wednesday into Thursday), with this accepted - probabilities become ‘odds-on’ to be below threshold from Thursday.