Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-15T00:16:01

In the coming days, the high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background to moderate levels. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period, with a continued slow declining trend.

The REFM electron fluence forecast is considered correct in predicting fluence levels to remain below the Active threshold, though has absolute values slightly too low, and the sharp drop of an order of magnitude predicted at T+24 is considered very unlikely, with a slowly declining trend considered more realistic.