MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-22T00:19:03
The high energy electron flux at GEO is currently at low background to moderate levels, with a reasonably stable and slow solar wind. There is not likely to be a mechanism to charge the radiation belts significantly, with any enhancement to the solar wind late on day 3 unlikely to lead to any enhancements to flux levels until beyond the forecast period.. The current REFM model at the time of issue (22/0000Z) is considered too high from T+24.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-06-22T00:19:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |