MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-15T00:07:03
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) at GEO is expected to remain at background to moderate levels throughout the forecast period. Corresponding high energy electron fluence is forecast by the REFM model to reach the Active (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1) threshold by day 3 (17th Jul), but this is thought to be overdone as there is currently no mechanism forecast to bring the flux levels up to this level (i.e. no significant coronal hole fast wind input into the radiation belts).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-15T00:07:03 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |