MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-16T00:02:11
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) at geosynchronous Earth orbit is expected to remain at background to moderate levels over the next four days.
While there is a coronal hole due in the period in the form of coronal hole 07 on day one (Monday 16 July), this is not likely to significantly populate the van Allen belts. Beyond this, with a gradual reversion to ambient solar wind, the probabilities of exceeding Active 24-hour fluence remain slight.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-16T00:02:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |