Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-15T00:23:22

The high energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels, and expected to persist at background until the arrival of the high speed stream associated with positive coronal hole 16. This is likely to lead to flux levels increasing during day 2 (16 Aug), becoming moderate to high, with high values at time of diurnal maximum. There is a chance of more general high values occurring, however the electron response on the previous solar rotation suggests that this will not be the case.

The corresponding 24-hour fluence will also rise, after arrival of the high speed stream, perhaps nearing the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) as electrons accumulate during day 3 and 4 (17 and 18 Aug).