MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-14T00:09:11
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) is expected to increase slightly today (14th) to vary between background and moderate levels before increasing more generally from day 2 (15th) after anticipated connection with the high speed stream from positive coronal hole 16.
The corresponding 24-hour fluence is likely to rise from day 2 in response, perhaps nearing the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) by the end of day 3 (16th) as electrons accumulate.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-08-14T00:09:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 30% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |