Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-13T00:13:10

High energy electron flux levels (greater than 2MeV) at GOES 15 have risen and have recently peaked at high levels on the diurnal cycle, peak flux 1980 pfu at 12/2150 UTC. The high energy electron fluence is also on a rising trend, but is currently still below the Active threshold. However, in the wake of the current high speed stream, flux/fluence levels are expected to rise over the next few days, breaching the Active threshold later on day 1 (13 Sep). There is a chance that fluence levels may reach the Very Active threshold by day 3 (15th), before dropping back close to the Active threshold again on day 4 (16th), when the next high speed stream is anticipated to arrive.