Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-12T00:21:25

High energy electron flux levels (greater than 2MeV) at GOES 15 have been subdued over the past 24 hours due to increased geomagnetic activity compressing the magnetopause. Levels have now started to recover and are likely to be at moderate or high levels through the period. As a result there is a chance that the high energy electron fluence will rise above the Active threshold on day 1 (12 Sep), with levels likely to be above from day 2 (13 Sep)  onwards. Met Office REFM predictions support the updwards trend, although Very Active levels are only considered a low risk.