MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-19T00:10:01
The diurnal pattern in electron flux at GEO has since stabilised after falling sharply on Monday 17th, likely remaining mostly above 1000pfu during the evening UTC, occasionally falling below during the morning periods. This means 24-hour fluence is likely to remain just above the Active threshold (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1). The flux may reduce sharply again during day 4 (22nd) with the likely onset of the next coronal hole fast wind.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-19T00:10:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 80% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 5% |