Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-26T00:02:20

The high energy electron flux is expected to continue declining through the forecast period, but may peak above the Active threshold with the diurnal cycle. The associated 24-hour fluence is now likely to remain below the active threshold throughout the forecast period. The REFM forecast model shows a declining trend, but is lagging behind the fall-off of the observed flux levels. The 27-day recurrence shows much higher levels during the last solar rotation, but on this occasion the same strength of the solar wind from the northern coronal hole was not experienced at Earth. There is increasing confidence that the electron fluence is going to remain at low levels during the period.