MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-27T00:12:30
With no significant coronal hole high speed streams expected through the next four days, the flux of high-energy (greater than 2MeV) electrons is expected to see a gradual decline, although still likely to reach high levels through the diurnal cycle, at least on day 1 and perhaps day 2 (27th & 28th).
The resultant 24-hour integrated electron fluence is expected to remain below the active (1e8 pfu) threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-27T00:12:30 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |