Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-20T00:11:57

The diurnal pattern in electron flux at GEO has since stabilised at mainly high levels (above 1000pfu with diurnal peak and trough). Through days 1, 2 and 3 (20th-22nd) flux levels are likely to continue to diurnally peak above 1000pfu, occasionally falling below during the early morning periods UTC. This means 24-hour fluence is likely to remain just above the Active threshold (1e8 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1). The flux may reduce sharply again during day 3 into day 4 (22nd) with the likely onset of the next coronal hole fast wind stream.