MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-21T00:36:09
The High Energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GEO has persisted at high levels (above 1000 pfu) through the past 24 hours. However, the flux may reduce sharply from day 3 (23rd) with the onset of the next coronal hole high speed stream and resulting geomagnetic activity. The corresponding 24-hour fluence values are also likely to remain above the High threshold (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1) for much of the forecast period, probably reducing during day 3 (23rd) and falling below the High threshold by day 4 (24th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-21T00:36:09 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |