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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-21T00:36:09

The High Energy (>2MeV) electron flux at GEO has persisted at high levels (above 1000 pfu) through the past 24 hours.  However, the flux may reduce sharply from day 3 (23rd) with the onset of the next coronal hole high speed stream and resulting geomagnetic activity. The corresponding 24-hour fluence values are also likely to remain above the High threshold (1e8 particles cm-2 sr-1 day-1) for much of the forecast period, probably reducing during day 3 (23rd) and falling below the High threshold by day 4 (24th).

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-09-21T00:36:09
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 90% 1%
Day 3 70% 1%
Day 4 30% 1%