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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-27T00:04:33

The high energy electron flux is currently at background levels, with the associated electron fluence remaining well below the Active (1e8 24 hour integrated pfu) threshold. A slight increase in electron flux is possible on days 3 and 4 due to increased solar winds from the northern polar coronal hole and then coronal hole 43, although temporary decreases are also possible during any increased geomagnetic activity. Therefore electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold through the period.

 



 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-10-27T00:04:33
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 1% 1%
Day 3 10% 1%
Day 4 10% 1%