Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-04T00:20:49

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain predominantly at moderate levels, but is likely to peak at High levels during the diurnal cycles, as a result of the high speed stream associated with coronal hole 32; this hole is likely to give a solar wind speed around 500 km/s, so only a moderate response is expected to the electron flux. During day 4 (7th) the flux is expected to quickly decrease as a result of geomagnetic activity, before sharply rising again late in the day. 

The REFM model indicates a possible rise above the high threshold from tomorrow, but overall he high energy electron fluence remains predominantly below the High threshold. The 27-day recurrence from coronal hole 32 shows the fluence level did not breach the High threshold on the previous rotation, with similar strength solar wind speeds. Hence probabilities only increase to 40% for days 2 and 3 (5th and 6th) before decreasing for day 4 (7th) as enhanced geomagnetic activity is likely to occur.