MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-05T00:00:50
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain well below Active level, but may rise above on Monday, especially at the diurnal maximum, following the impact of positive coronal hole 34. The corresponding high energy electron fluence (greater than 2 MeV) should remain below Active throughout on Days 1 to 3, but may possibly rise above on Day 4. Confidence is however low. The REFM 27-day recurrence suggests the response in the Val Allen belt from the next positive coronal hole 34 is likely beyond the end of the forecast period. The REFM forecast shows values remaining below the Active threshold throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-10-05T00:00:50 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |