Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-08-27T00:10:38

High energy electron flux levels started the period suppressed due to the enhanced geomagnetic activity. However as this has subsided over the past few hours a relatively quick return to the standard diurnal cycle is occurring as the Van Allen belts become charged from the marked increase in solar wind speeds which are now above 550 km/s.

The high electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to continue between moderate to high throughout much of the forecast period, with a chance of reaching very high levels (greater than 50000pfu) during peaks of the diurnal cycle from day 2 (28 Aug) onwards. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is now expected to be above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with a slight chance of reaching very high levels from day 2 (28 Aug.) onwards.