Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-10-19T00:04:34

The flux of high energy electrons will start at moderate or high levels today (19 Oct), before temporarily dropping to background levels later today, as a result of expected slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity. A return to moderate to high levels is likely again from day 2 onwards (20th). The corresponding fluence expected to remain below the high threshold today and tomorrow (19 and 20 Oct), but is likely to increase close to or just rising about the high threshold from day 3 (21st), as a result of the high speed stream from coronal hole 36.

The Met Office REFM model is obviously underestimating the current fluence levels, and therefore is not considered good guidance  for the forecast fluence values. High fluence values throughout are considered more reasonable, with the fluence level close to the high threshold by late day 3 and into day 4.