Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-18T00:01:47

The diurnal oscillation of high energy electron flux has shown a gradual ebbing trend in the past few days on resumption of ambient solar wind conditions. This trend is expected to continue in the near term, meaning the chances of Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence are very low.

Fragmented and faint coronal hole 47 is due to become geoeffective later on day one, Sunday 18 November, however peak speeds in the low-400s of km/s seen at STEREO A for this feature suggest surpassing Active fluence is unlikely, even after coronal hole 47 affects Earth. 

Probabilities do rise slightly through the period as a result of reducing confidence, however on balance the near-Earth satellite environment is expected to remain favourable on all days.