MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-11-19T00:10:45
With no significant geomagnetic activity or significant enhancements in solar winds expected in the coming days, the flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at mainly moderate levels throughout the period. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, with the current slow declining trend expected to continue.
Note: the gradually increasing probability of reaching Active fluence levels (1e8 integrated pfu) reflects the gradually increasing uncertainty as the forecast period progresses, rather than any increasing expectation of significant changes in the flux of fluence.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-11-19T00:10:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |