Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-11T00:54:19

The flux levels of the high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) will likely be subdued on Day 1 and for much of Day 2 with the ongoing geomagnetic activity compressing the magnetopause. Then a strong recovery is possible later Day 2, and more likely through Days 3 and 4 with above Active periods likely at the diurnal maximum. The corresponding 24-hour fluence level is also likely to rise above the 1e8 integrated pfu threshold on Days 3 and 4, with a low risk of rising above the 1e9 threshold. This trend is supported by the REFM recurrence which passed above the Active threshold on the equivalent of Day 4. The coronal hole has arrived around a day earlier on this rotation, which suggests a faster response this time around. The forecast model also suggests an erratic rise over the period.