MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-09-06T00:23:43
Electron flux levels are expected to be at background to moderate levels on day 1. From day 2 onwards the electron flux is likely to increase to moderate to high levels due to the onset of CH22 high speed stream. The electron fluence is expected to be below the Active threshold initially, although there is a chance that this will be breached on days 3 and 4 in response to the increased flux levels.
The REFM predictions are currently too high and model forecasts should not be relied on. On day 3 or 4 there is a chance that Active levels will be reached.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-09-06T00:23:43 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |