MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-17T00:08:41
The flux of high energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) at geosynchronous Earth orbit is expected to remain at background to moderate levels over the next four days. Whilst an enhancement in the solar wind is possible on Day 4 due to the arrival of coronal hole 08, this is unlikely to significantly populate the van Allen belts initially.
Therefore, throughout the period the probabilities of exceeding Active 24-hour fluence remain slight.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-17T00:08:41 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |