MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-24T00:25:11
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels on Days 1 and 2 (24 and 25 July). Thereafter diurnal peaks may breach the High threshold. The corresponding 24-hour fluence values will likely remain below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) for much of the period but from late on Day 3 (26 July) and on Day 4 (27 July) there is a chance (50%) that fluence values may exceed this level.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-07-24T00:25:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 50% | 5% |