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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-07-25T00:15:51

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has now recovered after the electron re-distribution caused by CIR and high speed stream onset on 24th. In the absence of any significant geomagnetic activity, counts should rise through this forecast period, and increasing likely to reach high levels. Corresponding electron fluence will start the period well below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), but likely to be above from day 3 (27th).

 


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-07-25T00:15:51
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 20% 1%
Day 2 40% 5%
Day 3 60% 5%
Day 4 70% 5%