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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-25T00:29:27

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is fluctuating around moderate levels, briefly reaching high. The trend for moderate, occasionally high levels of electron flux are likely to continue through days 1 and 2, as the solar wind from coronal hole 03 declines. There is then expected to be a sharp reduction in the flux due to the CIR ahead of the high speed stream from coronal hole 04, with a slow increase again through day 4 (28 June). The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below threshold through much of the forecast period, perhaps reaching the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold later on day 4 as the high speed stream becomes established.

 

 


 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2018-06-25T00:29:27
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 1% 1%
Day 2 5% 1%
Day 3 1% 1%
Day 4 5% 1%