MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-18T00:28:22
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background to moderate levels. The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period.
The REFM electron fluence forecast is considered correct in predicting fluence levels to remain below the Active threshold, with some minor fluctuations, although the sudden drop after Day 1 is unrealistic.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2018-06-18T00:28:22 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |