Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-06-19T00:17:33

Geomagnetic activity associated with coronal hole 02 has proved sufficient to greatly reduce observed electron fluence levels at both GOES 15 and 14. While a degree of recovery is expected, it is felt unlikely that this will be sufficient to breach the Active 24-hour fluence threshold. This runs counter to REFM forecasts, which are perhaps too heavily weighted towards persistence in this instance.

There are no other significant effects on geomagnetism expected in the four-day period, and as such fluence levels attained in the ensuing hours are likely to be the peak in the period.