Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-19T00:25:11

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mainly moderate levels through much of the period, with diurnal increases above the high threshold.  The flux could decrease to background levels for a time on day 4 due to any geomagnetic effects following potential connection with the southern extent of  CH95/+, but this is currently considered to be a low likelihood. Any subsequent high speed stream on day 4 is likely to be relatively weak, restricting any significant increase in electron values.

The corresponding 24 hour electron fluence has declined below the Active (1e8) threshold in the last 24 hours. Fluence levels are  forecast to remain below the Active threshold through day 1 and 2, with an increased chance of the Active threshold being reached on day 3 and 4.