Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-12T00:14:15

The high energy electron flux remains high to very high, but is starting to show signs of declining as fresh input from the solar wind slows. Day 1 (12th) will start above the 1e9 particles cm^-2 sr^-1 day^-1 threshold on the fluence, but is likely to trend downwards. The proceeding days should also continue to trend downwards. This is similar to what happened during the last rotation's pass of the coronal hole. The REFM model is considered to show good guidance on Day 1, but is currently over-estimating the forecast for Day 2 and 3 (13th and 14th).