Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-13T00:04:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) in the outer Van Allen belt is expected to continue with a gradual downward trend, with above Active levels (1000 pfu) likely, and diurnal peaks possibly above the Very Active level (10e4), especially on Day 1. The 24-hour fluence is expected to be above the Active threshold throughout, but with a continued slow declining trend, and therefore lowering probabilities. This is reflected in the 27-day persistence which shows above Active levels, but falling over the equivalent period. The solar wind this time around has been stronger which suggests slightly higher fluence levels. The REFM model is giving reasonable guidance for Day 1, but Day 2 is considered far too high, and Day 3 probably slightly high.