Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-06T00:01:13

The high energy electron flux and 24-hour fluence (greater than 2MeV) will remain below the Active threshold at first, but then rise above on Day 2 to 4 as a delayed response to the forecast high speed stream. The REFM model is already forecasting a strong response to the current high speed stream on Day 2. However, the ongoing geomagnetic activity may continue to disrupt the flux levels at geosynchronous orbit on Days 1 and 2, which reduces confidence levels. As geomagnetic activity settles down then there is higher confidence of the electron flux rising above the Active level towards the end of the period. The persistence model suggests a rise on Day 3, but with the current high speed stream arriving a day early, Active levels may be seen earlier on Day 2.