Forecaster summary - Issued 2018-05-14T00:24:33

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) at GEO has been gradually declining over the last few days, and this is expected to continue through the period. The electron flux is expected to continue at mainly high levels (above 1000pfu) today, declining to vary between moderate and high levels later in the forecast period as solar winds return to background levels, potentially declining further on day 3 or 4 in response to any geomagnetic activity as coronal hole 94 becomes geoeffective. 

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to respond with an overall slow declining trend.  Overall, the fluence is likely to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the forecast period, but is likely to become very close to the threshold by day 3 (16th), perhaps falling below on Day 4. 

The REFM forecast appears to have verified very well with observations from the past 24 hours, although the decline in fluence levels is expected to be slower and more gradual than the REFM forecast suggests.  The model forecast jump to close to 8e8 integrated pfu later tomorrow is considered erroneous and should be ignored, as such fluence values are unlikely to be reached during the forecast period, and especially not over such a short timeframe.  As stated above, fluence values are expected to gradually decline throughout the forecast period, approaching the Active threshold by the end of day 3.